The period of the study covers the year to 31st August, during which time the notaires report that "the market continued to surf on the euphoria that has carried it since the end of the first Covid confinement."
They also confirm the nationwide trend that has taken place, of the move away from the big cities to areas and homes that promise a better quality of life.
Sales
There were almost 18,000 transactions in the year, a record for the department. The volume of real estate sales over one year for all property types increased by +6%, a figure that confirms a progression in sales that began in 2016, as can be seen from the graphic below. Sales in the year were twice the number recorded in 2013.
Prices
Alongside the increase in sales, house prices also rose by +2.7% to the end of August to reach an average of over €200,000 for the first time.
However, the overall increase disguises significant differences by geographic area, as shown on the graphic below.
House prices in the centre of the department, the most affordable sector, rose by nearly 10% to reach an average of €125,000. The lower prices in this area can in part be explained by the type of property of sold, which were on average smaller than elsewhere.
An even more disparate market becomes evident from an analysis of prices by municipal area, which shows prices in some communes rose, whilst others remained stable or even fell.
In the coastal town of Canet-en-Roussillon, among the most expensive communes in the department, the median sale price was €270,500, the median living area 94 m² and the median land area 260 m². In contrast, in Barcarès, the median sale price was around 50% lower (€133,600), but the median living and land areas smaller (41 m² and 160 m² respectively).
The notaires provide figures for only a selection of communes, presumably being those where the volume of sales made an analysis of the movement in prices possible.
The following graphic compares average prices for both apartments and houses in the department with those in the region and the departmental capital Perpignan over the past 10 years.
As can be seen, whilst there have been significant price rises over a 5-year period, over the longer-term price increases have been more modest. Indeed, over the past 10 years prices of apartments in Perpignan have actually fallen by -13%.
Outlook
In terms of the outlook the notaires are, not surprisingly, less optimistic, pointing to the increase in interest rates that is taking place, as well as significant inflationary pressures, which are placing a strain on household budgets.
"This gloomy mood, which reflects sluggish consumption, and the tensions over lending, are changing the economic fundamentals that have been driving the housing market and will have an impact on demand, which will be more constrained", state the notaires.
They consider that, on average, prices will fall in 2023, but that there will be no crash, due in part to the strength of real estate as a more secure investment at a time of uncertainty. They point out, as is evident from the above figures, that the housing market is not homogenous, but a varied one, where many different markets co-exist.
We covered the national outlook recently in our article House Market in France in Landing Zone.
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