Sales
There were 951,000 sales of existing homes in the 12 months to the end of August 2026, 3.6% more than a year earlier. But growth has slowed sharply since the end of 2025, when it was approaching 13%.
The notaires say transactions could fall back to around 920,000 by the end of the year. That would put the market roughly where it was in 2017, although transactions were rising at that time.
The slowdown appears to be less about a lack of demand than uncertainty about the economy. Buyers are taking longer to decide, negotiating harder or putting off purchases. Some sellers, meanwhile, are reluctant to accept current prices and are delaying their sales.
Prices
After being broadly stable in the first quarter, prices of existing homes fell again in the second. Over the year, prices were down 0.8% nationally.
Apartments were almost unchanged, falling 0.1%, while houses fell 1.3%.
The notaires' preliminary sale agreements point to broadly stable prices this autumn, with prices in the provinces close to flat over the year. These forecasts were made before the riots of 17th October, which are highly unlikely to improve market sentiment.
There were signs of weaker demand even before then. Property portal Bien'ici reported on 12th October that enquiries on properties for sale fell 22% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, while the number of properties listed for sale increased by 4%.
That represents a significant fall in the number of enquiries for each property on the market.
Bien'ici president David Benbassat attributes the hesitation to several factors, including energy prices, international tensions, higher interest rates and uncertainty ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Interest rates
Mortgage rates have been rising. The digital mortgage broker Pretto puts it’s October average for a 25 year mortgage at 3.75%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points since September.
Since then, the yield on French 10-year government bonds, which mortgage rates tend to follow with a lag, has climbed above 5%. Investors have cited concerns over France's public finances and budget, as well as the unrest and the 2027 election.
The notaires regard 4% mortgage rates as an important threshold. Above that level, buyers' borrowing capacity would be reduced further, while homeowners who took out cheap mortgages in 2019–2021 may be even less inclined to move.
The latest rise in bond yields suggests that the 4% mortgage threshold may now be getting closer.
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